Brazilian media report that the country’s dairy sector anticipates the imminent implementation of measures against milk from Argentina and Uruguay. As a result, the Brazilian government has reopened its antidumping investigation into powdered milk imports from its Mercosur partners. The proceedings could extend until June of next year, although provisional measures are expected in the short term.
The initiative was spearheaded by the National Dairy Farming Commission of the National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA). Its representatives maintain that action is needed to reverse the critical situation in the Brazilian dairy sector, according to Milkpoint. The Parliamentary Front in Support of Milk Producers backs this demand, although the specifics and scope of any potential provisional measures have not yet been defined. These measures typically involve a surcharge on imported milk and have an initial duration of four months, extendable for an additional two months.
Brazilian producers have long complained about the volume of milk arriving from the Río de la Plata countries, yet no decisive action has been taken. This time, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) acknowledged that powdered milk and raw milk can be considered similar for the purposes of the investigation and recognized the legitimacy of the CNA (National Anti-Dumping Commission) in filing the petition, understanding that powdered milk is dehydrated milk and therefore there is sufficient similarity to warrant an antidumping analysis.
A technical advisor to the CNA stated that between 2021 and 2023, Argentina exported powdered milk to Brazil at prices significantly lower than those in its domestic market, which is considered relevant evidence for the dumping complaint. The investigation must also demonstrate the harm to the local market and the causal link to these imports. There is unease in Argentina regarding the Brazilian initiative, as some believe the actions are not supported by technical grounds.
According to Milkpoint, the sector expects the provisional measures to be implemented soon and that the final ruling will support the position of Brazilian producers, which could alter the dairy trade landscape in Mercosur. The period under analysis covers imports between January and December 2023, while the impact on the Brazilian industry will be assessed from January 2021 to December 2023.
The product under investigation is unfractionated powdered milk, a relevant category for the food chain that is included in several subheadings of the Mercosur Common Nomenclature (NCM). The CNA maintains that these imports compete directly with locally produced fresh milk, despite differences in production processes and physical characteristics between the two products.
Argentina and Uruguay, for their part, challenge the definition of similar product used by Brazil, arguing that fresh milk and powdered milk are substantially different goods in terms of industrial processes, distribution channels and end uses.
Desde Argentina se cuestiona además que la CNA, que representa a los productores de leche fresca, sea la entidad adecuada para reclamar medidas antidumping sobre la leche en polvo. Asimismo, se alega que los datos presentados en la solicitud no reflejan correctamente el comportamiento del mercado ni las causas reales de las dificultades del sector brasileño.
Uruguay sostiene que la transformación necesaria para obtener leche en polvo la convierte en un producto industrializado distinto de la leche cruda o fresca, lo que, según su criterio, invalida la comparación. También subraya las diferencias arancelarias y normativas en el Mercosur. El embajador uruguayo en Brasilia adelantó que la embajada coordinará acciones con las empresas lácteas del país para evitar la imposición de medidas provisionales, aranceles o impuestos.
La investigación plantea desafíos importantes para la integración económica del Mercosur: mientras Brasil busca proteger su industria, Argentina y Uruguay plantean objeciones basadas en principios de libre comercio y en las normas antidumping de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC).
El caso pone de relieve las tensiones del comercio intrarregional, donde los intereses nacionales pueden entrar en conflicto con los objetivos de integración económica.
Las partes involucradas, incluidas empresas exportadoras y gobiernos, cuentan con plazos para presentar información y participar en audiencias públicas. La indagación incluye el envío y revisión de cuestionarios a productores, importadores y otros actores del mercado. Si se confirman prácticas de dumping, Brasil podría imponer derechos antidumping definitivos, con impacto en el comercio intrarregional de lácteos.
Cabe recordar que en agosto pasado el gobierno brasileño había decidido no aplicar medidas de este tipo sobre las importaciones de leche en polvo desde Argentina y Uruguay, lo que había sido interpretado como un alivio para las exportaciones regionales. En 2023 y 2024 esas exportaciones alcanzaron aproximadamente 330 millones de dólares, con volúmenes anuales de entre 90 y 95 mil toneladas. En aquel proceso participaron activamente organismos públicos y privados argentinos; ahora el expediente vuelve a abrirse.
En paralelo, el gobierno brasileño anunció una intervención directa en el mercado para comprar de manera urgente más de 2.500 toneladas de leche en polvo, en respuesta a la sobreoferta y la caída de precios que afectan a los productores. La operación, a cargo de la Compañía Nacional de Abastecimiento (Conab), representará una inversión de hasta 106 millones de reales (unos 19 millones de dólares). Según Cepea, el precio pagado al productor en Brasil cayó más de un 20% en 2025, con datos parciales hasta noviembre, principalmente por el aumento de la oferta.
All of this is happening against a backdrop of falling international prices for butter, milk, and cheese, driven by high global production that is putting pressure on markets and raising the risk of a prolonged period of low prices. Miles Hurrell, CEO of the Fonterra group, warned that supply now exceeds demand.
On Tuesday, December 16, Global Dairy Trade prices registered their ninth consecutive decline in the average value of all products; the last significant increase was on August 5. Against this backdrop, China decided to impose tariffs on dairy imports from the European Union due to its own overproduction, with increases ranging from 21.9% to 42.7%. Dairy production in China has grown considerably since 2017, while consumption has declined, partly due to the falling birth rate, which has driven costs above the prices received by producers.
When prices deteriorate, a greater protectionist impulse emerges in countries with lower efficiency or environmental limitations on production. The current situation shows signs of a scenario with these characteristics.
